Two calculators. No sign-up.
These run the same arithmetic Moatrics runs on every company it covers — same constants, same order of operations. Type three numbers, read the price. Nothing is stored and nothing is emailed.
Margin of Safety
Compound today's earnings out ten years, apply a deliberately stingy multiple, discount it back, then halve it. The result is a price that leaves room for you to be wrong.
Needs: EPS, expected growth rate, current P/E (optional)
Payback Time
Add up the free cash flow per share a business is likely to hand you over eight years. The result is the price at which it pays for itself inside that window.
Needs: free cash flow per share, expected growth rate
Why two prices and not one
Each model is wrong in its own direction. Earnings run through accrual accounting and can be managed; cash is harder to dress up but far lumpier. When a company looks cheap on one and expensive on the other, that disagreement is itself information — usually that the accounting and the cash are describing two different businesses. Moatrics runs a third model as well, a ten-cap on owner earnings, and when all three hold up it takes the highest of them as the reference entry price.
What these pages are not
A price is the last of the four questions about a business, not the first. A calculator cannot tell you whether the company will still have its advantage in ten years, whether management has earned your trust, or whether you understand what you are buying. It computes arithmetic on numbers you typed. Treat a cheap number as a reason to go read the filing, nothing more.
See how the four questions fit together